Long-term treasuries have been under pressure, but there could be a softening trend in interest rates in the short term. The Federal Reserve scaling back its quantitative tightening program and the US Treasury's buyback program have not helped bond markets as expected. The US Government's large deficit and increasing debt levels are putting downward pressure on bonds, but interest rates need to come down for long-term debt sustainability.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has come under pressure in the past few years as concerns about the US public debt have remained. Its stock has plunged by over 40% from its all-time high of $162.97 to the current $90.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) presents an opportunity for capital appreciation and monthly income. TLT has underperformed the market and carries the risks of opportunity cost and declining share prices. TLT's potential lies in a cutting cycle by the Fed, which could cause its underlying assets to become more valuable and push its share price higher.
Fed Trader's Chaim Siegel believes that the fundamentals of the market, including earnings and the economy, are good and that the market will continue to be bullish. He sees the Fed's stance on interest rates and inflation as key drivers for the market, and believes that as long as inflation remains around 0.3%, the market will be fine.