Ternium S.A. Sponsored ADR (TX)
Ternium: Can Regional Barriers Keep Margins Safe?
Ternium thrives as a regional steel spread player, balancing iron ore costs against HRC prices and exposure to nearshoring and potential market protection in Mexico and Brazil. The stock's valuation reflects expectations for margin normalization; upside exists if steel spreads recover, but downside risk remains if spreads stay compressed. Key risks include exposure to open markets vulnerable to Chinese dumping, legal liabilities in Brazil, and currently negative free cash flow yield due to cyclical headwinds.
Ternium: Latin Steelmaker Betting Big On Nearshoring - And It's Dirt Cheap
Ternium's integrated business model leverages low-cost raw materials, flexible production methods, and proximity to high-growth Latin American. They are positioned to benefit from nearshoring trends and import substitution, especially as Mexico imports nearly half its steel and USMCA incentives drive demand. TX stands out for disciplined capital deployment into ESG-aligned projects, investing ahead of peers in efficient, cleaner steelmaking capacity for future growth.
Ternium: A Value Opportunity In The Regional Steel Industry
Fully integrated model: Ternium controls the entire steel production chain, ensuring cost efficiency, quality, and innovation while preparing for a cleaner, more sustainable industrial future. Undervalued by the market: The Company trades at deep discounts—P/E FWD of 4.56x and EV/EBITDA of 4.12x—despite solid fundamentals, strong cash flow, and nearly 10% dividend yield. Strategic positioning: With operations across key regional markets and investments in high-tech facilities, TX is well-placed to benefit from nearshoring and green steel demand.
Ternium: Strong Buy Based On Deep Value And Market Pessimism
We initiate coverage on Ternium S.A. with a Strong Buy, given the market's overly bearish view on Latin American steel cyclicality and asset ramp-up. Our US$45/sh price target is based on a forward EV/Sales multiple of 0.45x on our below consensus 2026E revenues forecasts and implies 68% upside. We forecast Ternium trough revenues of US$16.2bn in 2025E, 4% below consensus, with a subdued recovery to US$17.1bn in 2026E.
Ternium: Upgrading To Buy Despite Bad Q4 Results
TX's Q4 2024 performance was weak, with a 21.4% YoY revenue decline and a significant EBITDA margin drop to 7%. Weak commercial demand in Mexico and uncertainties around tariffs and Chinese steel imports are expected to continue pressuring TX's topline in 2025. Despite volume pressures, TX's focus on high-margin products and operational efficiency should drive margin improvements and support bottom-line expansion in 2025.
Ternium S.A. (TX) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX ) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 19, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Sebastian Marti - Global IR & Compliance Senior Director Maximo Vedoya - Chief Executive Officer Pablo Brizzio - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Carlos De Alba - Morgan Stanley Caio Ribeiro - Bank of America Alejandro Demichelis – Jefferies Timna Tanners - Wolfe Research Alfonso Salazar - Scotiabank Operator Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Ternium Fourth Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call.
Ternium: Appealing And Risky At The Same Time
TX is an appealing stock in a number of ways, which includes a generous dividend and relatively low multiples. The stock has been weighed down by tough conditions in the steel market and the uncertainty of what tariffs could bring. TX has not done so badly considering the circumstances and there is reason to think 2025 could be a better year than 2024.
Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Ternium (TX) Stock?
Investors need to pay close attention to Ternium (TX) stock based on the movements in the options market lately.
Brazilian Court Confirms Ternium's Obligation to Pay Indemnification in connection with its 2012 Acquisition of a Participation in Usiminas; the Decision is subject to Further Appeals
LUXEMBOURG / ACCESSWIRE / December 6, 2024 / Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) announced that the Brazilian Superior Court of Justice (SCJ) published today its unanimous decision to reject a motion of clarification filed by Ternium's subsidiaries Ternium Investments and Ternium Argentina, together with Tenaris's subsidiary Confab (all of which compose the T/T Group under the Usiminas shareholders agreement), that had sought to revert the June 18, 2024 SCJ decision ordering the T/T Group to pay Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, or CSN, an indemnification in connection with their 2012 acquisition of a participation in Usiminas.
Ternium: Don't Judge A Book By Its Cover
Ternium has a current level of net debt of $1.46 billion, with extraordinary FCF generation over the last five years. Despite the fall in the international price of steel, the company maintained a solid financial performance. The company's Steel Products Shipments reached 4,123 tons, this amount implies an increase of 7% compared to Q2 2024.
Ternium S.A. (TX) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX ) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call November 6, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Sebastian Marti - Global IR & Compliance Senior Director Maximo Vedoya - Chief Executive Officer Pablo Brizzio - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Marcio Farid - Goldman Sachs Alfonso Salazar - Scotiabank Henrique Braga - Morgan Stanley Camilla Barder - Bradesco BBI Operator Thank you for standing by.
Ternium Announces Third Quarter and First Nine Months of 2024 Results
LUXEMBOURG / ACCESSWIRE / November 5, 2024 / Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) today announced its results for the third quarter and first nine months ended September 30, 2024.
