Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST ) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call August 5, 2025 4:30 PM ET Company Participants David J. Girouard - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Chairperson of the Board Paul Gu - Co-Founder, CTO & Director Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer Sonya Banerjee - Head of Investor Relations Conference Call Participants Dan Dolev - Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division James Eugene Faucette - Morgan Stanley, Research Division John Douglas Hecht - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Kyle Joseph - Stephens Inc., Research Division Kyle David Peterson - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division Mihir Bhatia - BofA Securities, Research Division Peter Corwin Christiansen - Citigroup Inc., Research Division Ramsey Clark El-Assal - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division Reginald Lawrence Smith - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division Robert Henry Wildhack - Autonomous Research US LP Simon Alistair Vaughan Clinch - Redburn (Europe) Limited, Research Division Operator Good afternoon, and welcome to the Upstart Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call.
Triple-digit gains across key business segments — as measured in loan originations and revenues — were not enough to stave off a 7% drop in Upstart Holding's shares in after-market trading on Tuesday (Aug. 5).
Although the revenue and EPS for Upstart (UPST) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended June 2025, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.36 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.27 per share. This compares to a loss of $0.17 per share a year ago.
I rate UPST a buy, as macroeconomic and company-specific tailwinds position it for a breakout with interest rates expected to decline. UPST's fundamentals are improving: Q1 revenue up 67% YoY, transaction volume up 89%, and contribution margin strong at 55%. Auto loans and HELOCs are rapidly growing segments, with HELOC originations up 6x YoY, offering significant future growth potential.
I initiate a Buy rating on Upstart Holdings, Inc. with a fair value of $118, citing its differentiated AI-driven loan origination platform. Upstart's AI models leverage 2,500+ variables, enabling automated, accurate, and scalable loan underwriting, reducing default risks for financial partners. Recent partnerships, robust funding supply, and strong transaction/revenue growth support my bullish outlook, with 60% revenue growth expected in FY25.
The risks are real—especially the debt and funding dependence, yet I see a path to $100 per share by summer 2026. Upstart's AI-driven lending platform is rebounding, with expected 60% y/y revenue growth and a path to $1B in 2025 revenues. Valuation is attractive at 7x forward sales, but a $735M net debt overhang and potential dilution remain key risks.
Besides Wall Street's top-and-bottom-line estimates for Upstart (UPST), review projections for some of its key metrics to gain a deeper understanding of how the company might have fared during the quarter ended June 2025.
The latest trading day saw Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) settling at $79.22, representing a -3.08% change from its previous close.
In the closing of the recent trading day, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) stood at $81.74, denoting a -1.9% move from the preceding trading day.
Upstart (UPST) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) closed the most recent trading day at $82.7, moving 1.7% from the previous trading session.