The problems continue to pile up for global luxury bellwether LVMH, this time in the wine and spirits division. First-half results show a 9% year-over-year decline in organic liquid sales in the period, driven by weak local demand and destocking in China, as well as lower demand in Europe and the US.
Diageo's (DEO) FY24 results are likely to reflect negative consumer sentiment and increased inventory levels in LAC, pressured further by escalating input costs.
Diageo is the market leader in spirits and has historically been valued at a rich Price to Earnings Ratio. Since December 2021, its stock price is in decline due to internal setbacks with inventory and consumer shifts after the pandemic. If the company is able to grow at its historical level, investors should have a decent return due to its growing Net Income, Dividends and Buybacks.
Contrarian investing is hard. It is difficult to go against the crowd.
Guinness owner Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE) is expected to report another slide in earnings in its full-year results later this month, with analysts expecting it to lower mid-term guidance as a result. Ahead of the update on July 30, analysts at Deutsche Bank warned organic sales in the second half may drop by 2%, compared to market consensus of a 0.9% rise.
Goldman Sachs has downgraded Diageo from a neutral to sell rating over concerns an ongoing slump in the U.S. spirits market will have an outsized impact on the London firm's sales.
British booze supplier Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE) has hardly been in high spirits this year, with the FTSE 100-listed multinational's share price falling more than 10% in the first half. But with destocking headwinds settling down and the prospect of positive earnings momentum in the upcoming financial year, Diageo shares may currently offer a cheap round for patient investors.
The Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE) whisky brand Crown Royal, the company's largest in the US, has experienced a recent slowdown and it could be a worrying "inflection point" for the group. Analysts at Jefferies noted that NielsenIQ data indicates fading demand for Crown Royal as the influence of its blackberry variant launched in March dissipates.
The stock price of Diageo (NYSE: DEO) trades at $130 per share, about 40% below its peak level of over $220 seen in December 2021. In contrast, its peer Anheuser-Busch InBev stock (NYSE: BUD) saw a 2% decline over this period.
Diageo's dividend has increased every year for more than 20 years, so it has an exceptional track record of progressive dividend growth. Diageo's declining equity is slightly odd because a growing company will usually be growing its equity, as that's the foundational source of funding upon which the rest of the business depends. Looking beyond the short-term headwinds, Diageo still operates in a very large and growing market.
Diageo (DEO) benefits from its focus on improving productivity coupled with its diversified footprint, a solid portfolio of brands, innovation and pricing.
AnheuserBusch InBev, Diageo, Constellation Brands, Molson Coors and The Boston Beer have been highlighted in this Industry Outlook article.