iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT: 5% Yield Now Outpaces Equity Earnings Yield, With Higher Term Premium Embedded
TLT's recent sharp selloff has priced in some fiscal deficit concerns, with 2-20 yield spread widening to 100 bps, indicating the current yield has embedded higher term premium. TLT has reached a 5% yield, surpassing the S&P 500's 4.7% earnings yield due to the recent V-shaped rebound in the equity market, as the market priced out recession risk in 2025. With yields nearing the 5.25%–5.5% resistance range, dip buyers may step in as cooling inflation makes further Fed hikes unlikely.
TLT: Doubling Down On Our Bullish Outlook
A fundamental analysis paired with a modelling process suggests longer-term yields remain overzealous. We think iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF can benefit if the market wakes up to the realities of lower justified real rates, lower term premiums, and the convexity-conducive environment. CDS and residual risk premiums were incorporated in our modelling process. In addition, history and UBS show that a ratings-based adjustment of a 10-15 basis point yield increase is justified.
TLT Vs. VCTL: Yield Spread Is Near 10-Year Low
The dividend yield spread between Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is currently near a 10-year low. This signals an unusually unfavorable return/risk ratio for VCLT relative to treasury bonds. To further compound the downside risks, VCLT has significant exposure to medium-quality corporate debt.
Reap the Benefits of Low ETF Expense Ratios Over Time
When it comes to cost savings on fixed income ETFs, Vanguard is head-and-shoulders above competitors. But it can be easy to get up caught in the low expense ratio game.
TLT: Inflation Sparks A Unique, Huge Upside Play - Low-Risk, But Fleeting
With today's interest rate and inflation setup, historical patterns suggest TLT could soar over 50% from current levels. But there's a catch - one popular indicator might lead investors astray. On their own, interest rates and inflation don't offer clear entry signals. But when combined, they form a powerful indicator.
ETFs to Play Amid Long-Term Yields' Best Week Since 1982
Fears of China selling U.S. treasuries, inflation risks, a less-dovish Fed, and the unwinding of basis trade hit the U.S. treasury market. These ETFs can come to your rescue.
Technical Note: Market Poised To Rebound?
EPS season is starting soon, AI investments continue at high rates. Jobs & Durables show the economy isn't stalling. Tech Valuations are down significantly vs. growth rates.
TLT: An Unique Asymmetrical Opportunity
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF offers thematic exposure to long-term treasury bonds with a 16.13 effective duration, providing potential for capital gains and income stability. A hard landing U.S. recession scenario seems likely, and TLT ETF can capitalize on pre-recession yield curve movements, presenting an active opportunity for excess return-seeking bond investors. Technical supply/demand concerns are evident. However, a shift might occur in due course.
TLT: Two Positives From The Tariffs
Reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump have caused significant market shifts, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF breaking to a new 2025 high. Long-term yields are influenced by inflation expectations and lower growth expectations; currently, growth concerns dominate. Tariffs could generate $600B annually for the government, reducing UST issuance and positively impacting TLT.
Trade Tracker: Joe Terranova adds to his TLT position
Joe Terranova, Senior Managing Director for Virtus Investment Partners, joins CNBC's "Halftime Report" to explain why he's adding to his TLT position for the third time.
Trade Tracker: Joe Terranova buys more of TLT
Joe Terranova, Senior Managing Director for Virtus Investment Partners, joins CNBC's "Halftime Report" to explain why he's buying more of TLT.
SPY Vs TLT: Trump Put Likely To Mitigate Stagflation Risks
Market volatility continues driven by Trump's tariff policy, with the S&P 500 nearing correction territory as recession risks rise, indicating that we are not out of the woods yet. Tariff-driven inflation could lead to a recession (or stagflation), but a Trump Put may mitigate SPY's downside risk, with the 10% correction already pricing in some recession fears. Consumer sentiment continues to deteriorate, whereas the job market remains resilient. The decade-tight credit spread and muted VIX level suggest that the bottom may not have formed yet.
